FC2ブログ

    ダルマダースの『インド講座』

      ひらけごまのナビゲーター   トップページ > スポンサー広告> 世界潮流 東アジアの憂鬱 > 中国の「一帯一路」構想の現況 各地で滞る  

    スポンサーサイト

    -- - --/-- [--] - --:--

    上記の広告は1ヶ月以上更新のないブログに表示されています。
    新しい記事を書く事で広告が消せます。

    中国の「一帯一路」構想の現況 各地で滞る

    2018 - 04/02 [Mon] - 22:05

    ◆ 滞る「一帯一路」 鉄道建設に遅れ、費用増も ◆
    中国・台湾 東南アジア 南西ア・オセアニア
    日本経済新聞社 Website

    2018/4/2 0:00日本経済新聞 電子版

     日本経済新聞の英文媒体「Nikkei Asian Review」は英フィナンシャル・タイムズ系の金融専門誌「バンカー」と共同で、中国が主導する広域経済圏構想「一帯一路」による事業計画の進捗状況を検証した。インドネシアでは総工費60億ドル(約6400億円)の鉄道建設が予定より遅れ、費用も増えるなどの実態が浮き彫りになった。計画の遅延や一部の国で膨らむ債務は、中国の構想に影を落としている。

     一帯一路の事業計画がインドネシア、スリランカ、カザフスタン、バングラデシュ、インド、ポーランド、ラオス、パキスタンの8カ国でどのように実行されているかを調査・検証した。主要インフラ計画を集約するために、米戦略国際問題研究所(CSIS)の「Reconnecting Asia Project」とも協力した。



     インドネシア第3の都市バンドンの郊外にある茶園の真ん中に、同国初となる高速鉄道の4駅のうち1つの用地がある。

     鉄道は同国で進む一帯一路に絡んだ2計画の1つで、2016年1月に着工した。首都ジャカルタとバンドンの142キロメートルを結ぶ。だが、2月下旬時点で地元当局は作業の10%しか完了していないと説明。計画した来年の運行開始は不可能だ。

     「土地の整備を別にすると、ほとんど何の活動もなかった」。地元住民はこう語った。「線路もなければ何もない。作業は3カ月ほど前にやっと再開され、地下トンネルが建設されている」

     原因は土地取得の遅れだ。当初の見通しが甘く今のところ必要な土地全体の半分しか確保していない。遅延中に地価も上昇。工費は発表時の55億ドル(約5830億円)から60億ドルに膨らんだ。

     鳴り物入りで宣伝された後、深刻な遅延が起きている例は、カザフスタンとバングラデシュなどでも見ることができる。

    china review 02010034

     パキスタンの古い漁村だったグワダルは「中国・パキスタン経済回廊(CPEC)」として知られる野心的な計画の中核をなす港となった。

     ここでは投資が進んでいることが明確に見て取れる。最近完成した延長660メートルのコンテナターミナルでは1千人以上が働き、およそ半数が中国人。近くに中国の資金で建てられた病院がある。

     中国はCPECの発電所、港湾、空港、高速道路などのインフラに630億ドルを投じると約束した。中国の狙いは、同国の内陸地域とグワダル港を結ぶことだ。ペルシャ湾から運んだ石油を同港で陸揚げし、中国に運べば、中国の輸送船は外国海軍が頻繁に偵察する数千キロメートルの海上輸送をしなくて済むようになる。

     だが、一部のアナリストは疑念を抱く。パキスタンの対中貿易赤字は増加し、債務を返済できなかった場合に何が起きるかが懸念される。インフラを必要とする国にとって、一帯一路は新しい鉄道、道路、港湾その他の事業計画への投資の約束を期待できる一方、潜在的な危険性も抱える。

     一帯一路の沿線ではスリランカ、モルディブ、ラオスでも中国に対して管理不能な債務を負うことへの懸念が出ている。

     スリランカは17年12月、南部ハンバントタ港の運営権(99年)を中国企業に譲渡した。中国は現在、同港の南側のインド洋を経由して、石油の3分の2を輸入する。中国のエネルギー安全保障上の重要な港となるが、スリランカ国内では主権の喪失ではないかという疑問も浮上している。

     隣国インドは中国がパキスタンと手掛ける計画が自国の主権を侵害していると主張し、一帯一路構想に公然と反発する。CSISの担当ディレクター、ジョナサン・ヒルマン氏は、インドが懸念を抱きながらスリランカでの中国の活動を注視してきたと指摘する。

    (山田剛、ステファニア・パルマ、黒沼勇史、エルウィダ・マウリア)


    ◆◆◆ 一帯一路 
    中国の習近平(シー・ジンピン)国家主席が2013年に提唱した中国と欧州を結ぶ巨大な広域経済圏構想。中央アジアを通る陸路を「一帯」、南シナ海やインド洋を通る海路を「一路」と呼ぶ。沿線の国は約70にのぼるとされ、インフラ投資などを通じ親中国圏を広げる狙い。中国は18年に入り、北極海を通る航路も一帯一路と結びつける方針を示した。

    ◆◆◆ Is China's Belt and Road working? ◆◆◆
    Nikkei Asian Review

    March 28, 2018 3:00 pm JST

    A progress report from eight countries
    Beijing's infrastructure push clouded by project delays and mounting debt

    GO YAMADA, Nikkei senior deputy editor, STEFANIA PALMA, Asia editor at The Banker

    GWADAR, Pakistan -- The idea of transforming the ancient fishing village of Gwadar into a bustling port city has been around since at least 1954, when Pakistan commissioned the U.S. Geological Survey to examine its coastline. Their conclusion: Gwadar, which sits on the Arabian Sea, would be an ideal location for a deep-water port.

    Gwadar's potential went unrealized for decades, but it is now at the heart of a hugely ambitious plan known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC. China has pledged to spend $63 billion to bolster Pakistan's power plants, ports, airports, expressways and other infrastructure under the initiative, which Beijing positions as one of the pillars of its $1 trillion global Belt and Road Initiative championed by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

    The investment is clearly visible at Gwadar. More than 1,000 people, about half of whom are Chinese, work at a recently completed 660-meter container terminal. Nearby is a hospital built using Chinese funds. Pearl Continental Hotel, a luxury hotel owned by a local company, stands on a hill overlooking the port. The pier is dotted with Pakistani naval and coast guard ships. Armed boats and pickup trucks patrol the area, while wooden fishing boats float in the distance.

    The gains for China in all of this development are perhaps less visible, but potentially far more significant. A major goal for China is to link its landlocked western region to the port at Gwadar. This would allow ships carrying oil and other goods from the Persian Gulf to avoid the "choke point" of the Strait of Malacca, shaving thousands of kilometers off existing routes frequently patrolled by foreign navies.

    gwadar_20180329_large_580.jpg
    China has high hopes for the deep-water port being developed in Gwadar, Pakistan. © Reuters

    For all this grand ambition, some analysts have doubts. Pakistan's trade deficit with China has been rising, and there are concerns about what happens if it is unable to repay its debt. As with other countries that have benefited recently from Beijing's largesse, some in Pakistan worry that the price of such investment could be a huge debt burden.

    The China-Pakistan corridor "will no doubt be a game changer for Pakistan, but we need to be careful," said Ehsan Malik, the CEO of Pakistan Business Council, a business policy advocacy forum. "Ten years' tax concessions, 90-year leases for Chinese companies and cheap imports will impact the competitiveness of existing domestic industries."

    Pakistan symbolizes both the promise and the potential peril for countries participating in China's BRI undertaking -- arguably the largest investment drive ever launched by a single country -- and its related projects.

    For countries needing infrastructure, the BRI holds the promise of investment in new railways, roads, ports and other projects. But as the Nikkei Asian Review and The Banker magazine discovered in producing this special report, participating countries also have worries, ranging from a lack of participation by local workers and banks to unmanageable debt hangovers.

    20180329BeltAndRoadMap_large_580.png

    The Nikkei Asian Review and The Banker examined how BRI projects are unfolding in eight countries: Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, India, Poland, Laos and Pakistan. We also collaborated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Reconnecting Asia Project to aggregate key BRI infrastructure projects worldwide.

    Key findings include:

    Beijing's infrastructure push clouded by project delays and mounting debt

    GO YAMADA, Nikkei senior deputy editor, STEFANIA PALMA, Asia editor at The Banker

    Project delays After initial fanfare, projects sometimes experience serious delays. In Indonesia, construction on a $6 billion rail line is behind schedule and costs are escalating. Similar problems have plagued projects in Kazakhstan and Bangladesh.

    Ballooning deficits Besides Pakistan, concerns about owing unmanageable debts to Beijing have been raised in Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Laos.

    Sovereignty concerns In Sri Lanka, China's takeover of a troubled port has raised questions about a loss of sovereignty. And neighboring India openly rejects the BRI, saying China's projects with neighboring Pakistan infringe on its sovereignty.

    Mushtaq Khan, an economist and former chief economic adviser at the State Bank of Pakistan, acknowledges that the country's debt to China is rising. But he says Beijing "cannot afford" to bankrupt Pakistan -- in part because of the country's importance as a counterweight to India, a regional rival of China's.

    "China's primary interest in Pakistan is geopolitical rather than strictly economic, and therefore, for China, repayment of the debt burden will be secondary to maintaining a good political and economic relationship with Pakistan," he said.

    china 20180329BR_Pakistan_large_580

    Gwadar, with a population of 110,000, is 90 minutes west by propeller plane from the mercantile city of Karachi in southern Pakistan and just 70km from the border with Iran. China refers to neighboring Pakistan as its "all-weather friend," but the country is not known for having a healthy business climate. Pakistan ranked 147th out of 190 countries and regions in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business 2018.

    The deeper ties with China come amid strains between Pakistan and the U.S. In January, the U.S. State Department announced that it would suspend security assistance to Pakistan over what it called a failure to clamp down on terror groups.

    The country's economy has been battered over the years by terrorism, fuel shortages and tattered governance, but it grew 5.4% in the year through June 2017, the fastest pace in 10 years. The State Bank of Pakistan forecasts growth to approach 6% in the year ending June 2018.

    The projects are underway with the belief that the troubled nation can join the vibrant club of emerging Asian economies. The government of Pakistan plans to transform Gwadar into one of the world's largest port cities by 2055, housing steel mills, terminals for liquefied natural gas, oil refineries and other facilities. Under the plan, trade and industrial zones will be concentrated on the city's east side, while the western side of the peninsula will serve as residential and tourism areas.

    "Gwadar port will be a hub to link Afghanistan and Central Asia, but it is not just a trade and logistics center," said Dostain Khan Jamaldini, chairman of Gwadar Port Authority. "We will set up an industrial estate with export manufacturing zones, and invite the motorcycle and electronics industries."

    "Gwadar port is not given to China only," Jamaldini said, stressing the authority's willingness to welcome U.S., European and Asian companies.

    china 2 20180329ChinaPakistanMap_large_580

    The chairman denied speculation that China could try to make Gwadar a military port in the future. "Gwadar is 100% commercial. If China [has military] needs, we have Ormara naval base near here," he said. "We have nothing to hide."

    Such developments have unnerved neighboring India, which has rejected the BRI program because China is financing projects on land that is claimed by both India and Pakistan. Arun Jaitley, India's finance minister, says the BRI violates India's sovereignty. "We are not a part of the project, and the proposed [BRI] road passes through what we regard as Indian territory," Jaitley said, referring to a project in the Gilgit-Baltistan area of Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan claim the Kashmir region.

    "We had to get out of this debt trap"

    When Sri Lanka handed over its southern port of Hambantota to China in December 2017, many saw it as a cautionary tale for other nations that are eagerly accepting Chinese help to build grand infrastructure projects.

    The country granted a 99-year lease on the port to China Merchants Port Holdings in hopes of cutting its debt, which is among the highest of the emerging economies. For its part, China gained an important beachhead for its attempt to expand its military influence in the Indian Ocean.

    Construction of the $1.5 billion Hambantota Port started in 2008 under former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The first phase of the project, which ended in 2010, cost $361 million. While details of the second phase are unknown, Export-Import Bank of China financed 85% of the first phase of work.

    But as the port's losses began to mount, the government in Colombo found itself unable to repay its debts. The country had an external debt of $48.3 billion at the end of 2017, and its annual external financing needs are $11 billion -- roughly the same as its annual tax revenue. Sri Lanka's debt to China totals $8 billion and is said to carry an interest rate of 6%.

    "We had to take a decision to get out of this debt trap," said Mahinda Samarasinghe, Sri Lanka's ports and shipping minister, of the reasoning behind the 99-year lease.

    Government critics have said Sri Lanka's sovereignty has been compromised by the port episode, which came only two months before the former president of neighboring Maldives warned that its debts to Beijing could force the country to cede territory to China as early as next year.

    Sri Lanka is located at a strategic point for the BRI. The port of Hambantota is indispensable for China's energy security because the country imports two-thirds of its oil through shipping lanes south of the port.

    Jonathan Hillman, director of the Reconnecting Asia Project at the CSIS, says India has been watching China's activity in Sri Lanka with concern. "The docking of a Chinese submarine at the port of Colombo in 2014 is one reason why the handover of a port at Hambantota in December 2017 raised alarms in Delhi. The nature of the Hambantota transaction, a debt-for-equity deal, also raised concerns," he said.

    china srilanka 20180329BR_SriLanka_large_580

    In 2009, President Rajapaksa put an end to Sri Lanka's civil war with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and shifted government policy from fighting toward improving infrastructure ahead of the presidential election in 2010. The development of Hambantota Port, located within his constituency, was a typical project.

    Rajapaksa kicked off the construction of Sri Lanka's second international airport in Mattala, an inland town 20km from the port, in 2009. Of the $209 million construction cost, Exim Bank of China put up $190 million with a concessionary loan. Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport is now called "the world's emptiest international airport" because it has only four regular flights arriving and departing per week. The Sri Lankan government plans to sell the airport, too.

    India is afraid that if the airport is purchased by China, it will become a Chinese air force base. A delegation from India visited the airport last year to discuss taking it over, but an airport official said, "I heard that it was not going well due to a mismatch in conditions from both sides."

    China is also involved in a $15 billion project to build "Port City Colombo" on reclaimed land in the capital. The $1.4 billion first phase of the project is being undertaken by a subsidiary of China Communications & Construction Co., which is shouldering the total cost of reclaiming 269 hectares of land.

    Sri Lanka's debt equals 81.6% of its gross domestic product, which the International Monetary Fund says is the third-highest ratio among emerging economies.

    Yet even after the debt problems at Hambantota were clear, China last year proposed to Sri Lanka two joint construction projects around the port: a $3 billion oil refinery and a $125 million cement factory.

    To the Sri Lankan government, "there is no country or institution with ready cash other than China," a senior economic official said.

    Rail lines in Southeast Asia

    In the middle of a tea plantation outside Bandung, Indonesia's third-largest city, sits the future site of one of the four stations on the country's first high-speed railway.

    The railway is one of two ongoing projects under the BRI in Indonesia. Launched in January 2016, the planned 142km railway that will connect Jakarta and Bandung was supposed to illustrate China's expanding economic power and influence. But as of late February, local officials said only 10% of the work had been completed, making it impossible for operations to start next year as scheduled. A funding crunch is also starting to raise concerns over the financial health of Indonesian companies involved.

    "After the project launch, there was almost no activity besides the land being cleared," said local villager Asep as he looked over the construction site at the Walini tea plantation. "No rail tracks. Nothing. Work only restarted around three months ago, for the underground tunnel."

    Paperwork and permit problems halted the project in its first several months, after which land acquisition proved to be a major headache. Only half of total land needed has been secured. Rising land prices during the delays is partially responsible for the project's growing price tag -- from $5.5 billion when it was announced to $6 billion.

    Sluggish land acquisition has had other consequences: China Development Bank, which agreed to cover 75% of the cost with loans, has repeatedly delayed disbursement, further hampering progress.

    20180329BR_Indonesia_large_580.png

    "The CDB will [start] loan disbursement this month," Chief Maritime Minister Luhut Panjaitan, whose office oversees joint Belt and Road projects with China, said on March 9. But since the bank signed the loan agreement during the BRI forum in Beijing last May, deadlines for distributing the money have been pushed back time and again.

    Analysts say it is unlikely China will cancel its funding given Indonesia's strategic importance as Southeast Asia's largest economy. But some think China has other, more pressing, priorities.

    "[High-speed railway] in Java island is an investment that could wait, as China has more immediate incentives to strengthen its trade routes in its neighboring countries first that are not separated by seas," brokerage Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia said in a note.

    The second active BRI project in Indonesia is the Morowali Industrial Park on Sulawesi island. The island already hosts Chinese nickel smelters and a stainless steel factory. A $1.6 billion deal was signed in Beijing last year that includes the construction of a carbon steel factory and a power plant. Additionally, Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board has designated three provinces -- North Sulawesi, North Kalimantan and North Sumatra -- for BRI investment. Future plans include the development of new industrial parks, ports, airports and tourism.

    Despite the delayed railway construction, Indonesia continues to have high hopes that BRI will help cover the funding gap in President Joko Widodo's $355 billion infrastructure drive.

    Bangladesh's experience has been similar. Its BRI projects were given a huge boost by Chinese President Xi's momentous 2016 state visit -- the first by a Chinese head of state in 30 years.

    But after an initial spike in activity, construction has slowed. "It started off pretty well, but while it's a bilateral initiative, it's not really just bilateral. There are other geopolitical issues which can play a part in actual execution. We see a bit of a slowdown," said Naser Ezaz Bijoy, CEO at Standard Chartered Bangladesh.

    The CSIS Reconnecting Asia Project has identified three key BRI projects in Bangladesh: the Dhaka-Jessore rail line, the Payra power plant and the Karnaphuli Tunnel -- the country's first-ever underwater tunnel. Chinese development banks dominate the projects' financing, while Chinese contractors often take over the construction process.

    Construction has already started for the $1.65 billion coal-fired power plant by the port of Payra. The plant is a joint venture involving Chinese power company CMC and Bangladesh's state-owned North-West Power Generation Co. While the equity will be split in half, the project's financing is fully provided by China. The plant is scheduled to be operational by December 2019.

    20180329BR_Bangladesh_large_580.png

    The $4.4 billion Dhaka-Jessore rail line is still in its preparatory phase. Announced in 2016, the line is expected to launch in 2022. State-owned China Railway Construction is the project's contractor.

    The construction stage for the Karnaphuli Tunnel is less clear. State-owned China Communications Construction Co. signed a $705 million contract with the Bangladesh Bridge Authority back in 2015. But in November 2017, Bangladeshi newspaper Financial Express reported that construction work had not started because the BBA was waiting for the Exim Bank of China to release funds for the project.

    Whatever the delay, Bijoy notes that the two countries are a good fit. "China has overcapacity onshore and it's not growing as fast as it did in the past, so it would require external demand to support its production. Countries like Bangladesh growing at 7% will have that demand."

    A BRI rail project in Laos is further along. Construction of a 414km railway linking Vientiane, the capital, to the China-Laos border is scheduled to be completed in December 2021.

    laos_20180329_large_580.jpg
    A hydropower project in Phongsaly Province, Laos: China is investing big in energy infrastructure in its southern neighbor. © Getty Images

    Talks on a possible rail project began in 2001, long before Xi introduced the idea of building a "new Silk Road." The two countries did not sign a memorandum of understanding until April 2010, however. After a number of further delays, a ceremony marking the official start of construction was held in December 2016 at Luang Prabang, Laos' ancient royal capital, which will be one of the main stations on the new rail line.

    "When it comes to Laos, China has for many years had a strategy to use its railway system to drive into Southeast Asia to bind these countries to China," said James Stent, who served for 13 years on the boards of China Minsheng Bank and China Everbright Bank in Beijing.

    There are complaints among Laotians that the labor on the rail line is predominantly Chinese, detracting from any knock-on benefits to the economy. Development banks worry that the $6 billion rail project will exacerbate Laos' already precarious debt levels, which reached 68% of GDP in 2016, increasing the debt distress level from "moderate" to "high" in the recent World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis. Laos' budget deficit in 2017 was 4.8% of GDP, compared with 4.6% in 2016.

    20180329BR_Laos002_large_580.png

    "There was some impact from the rail project because the government has to contribute $250 million to the project over the next five years, or $50 million a year from domestic revenues," said one development bank economist. "This money will mainly pay for the compensation to affected people along the railway line."

    China and Laos have set up a 70/30 joint venture to finance the railway project. Each side needs to contribute 40% of their investment commitment in cash, which means that Laos, with 30% of the joint venture, needs to contribute $715 million over the five-year construction period. Of this, $250 million will come from the national budget. The remaining $465 million will be borrowed from the Exim Bank of China at a 2.3% interest with a five-year grace period and a 35-year maturity.

    A worry hanging over the joint venture is: Who will pick up the tab if the railway does not make money? That may be more of a concern for Laos than for China. "It probably is not a commercially viable project in the time frame of a Western bank," Stent said. "But once you add in what China's objectives are, it makes sense for China."

    Nikkei staff writers Yuji Kuronuma and Erwida Maulia, and The Banker contributing writer Peter Janssen contributed to this report.



    スポンサーサイト


    関連記事

    チャイナ 未成年者の宗教活動を禁止 十字架の撤去も «««

     | HOME | 


    »»» イスラム教徒同士の内ゲバ

     | HOME | 

    れんらく用紙

    コメント・メッセージ承ります。お気軽にどうぞ。

    あなたのお名前:
    メール:
    本文:

    ツリーカテゴリー

    最近の記事

    リンク

    ブログ内検索

    上記広告は1ヶ月以上更新のないブログに表示されています。新しい記事を書くことで広告を消せます。